To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.
Predictions for the twelfth round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the final abilities from last season and the results to round 12.
|Chance of home team winning
|Sunshine Coast Lightning
|West Coast Fever
Score Differential Distributions
The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.
Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions
The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) in round 12 (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.