To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for the twelfth round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the final abilities from last season and the results to round 11.

Home Away Chance of home team winning
Collingwood Magpies NSW Swifts 31%
West Coast Fever Queensland Firebirds 60%
GIANTS Netball Melbourne Vixens 71%
Sunshine Coast Lightning Adelaide Thunderbirds 66%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.





Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) in round 11 (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.


The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 11.23. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home Away Chance of home team winning Home Goals Away Goals MAPE
Melbourne Vixens Collingwood Magpies 45% 48 52 8.2
NSW Swifts GIANTS Netball 82% 55 59 13.7
West Coast Fever Adelaide Thunderbirds 84% 69 44 15.7
Queensland Firebirds Sunshine Coast Lightning 38% 59 49 13.8