6th round predictions for Super Netball.

To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for the 6th round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the final abilities from last season and the results from rounds 1–5. However, given the Super Shot, it’ll take a little while for the model to adapt to the adjusted goals.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
NSW Swifts	Collingwood Magpies	89%
West Coast Fever	Queensland Firebirds	22%
Melbourne Vixens	GIANTS Netball	50%
Sunshine Coast Lightning	Adelaide Thunderbirds	87%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) in round 5 (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.

The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 12.42. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning	Home Goals	Away Goals	MAPE
West Coast Fever	Melbourne Vixens	23%	59	68	8.8
Queensland Firebirds	NSW Swifts	11%	57	64	8.2
Collingwood Magpies	Adelaide Thunderbirds	86%	52	60	19.3
Sunshine Coast Lightning	GIANTS Netball	56%	58	57	7.5

Non-HGA Model

I’ve also built a model that doesn’t utilise a home ground advantage parameter. Given the majority of teams don’t have a home crowd cheering them on, it seems unlikely that there’s any advantage to being named the ‘home team’ in a game. The non-hga predictions are below.