To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for this round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the results from the previous rounds this season.

Home Away Chance of home team winning
NSW Swifts Sunshine Coast Lightning 49%
Melbourne Vixens Adelaide Thunderbirds 53%
Queensland Firebirds Collingwood Magpies 64%
GIANTS Netball West Coast Fever 40%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.





Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) from the previous round (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.


The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 11.96. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home Away Chance of home team winning Home Goals Away Goals MAPE
Sunshine Coast Lightning Melbourne Vixens 26% 71 58 19
GIANTS Netball Collingwood Magpies 41% 76 61 18
West Coast Fever NSW Swifts 55% 76 58 17
Queensland Firebirds Adelaide Thunderbirds 52% 60 50 11