To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for this round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the results from the previous rounds this season.

Home Away Chance of home team winning
Melbourne Vixens GIANTS Netball 60%
NSW Swifts Collingwood Magpies 44%
Queensland Firebirds West Coast Fever 33%
Adelaide Thunderbirds Sunshine Coast Lightning 88%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.





Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) from the previous round (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.


The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 10.61. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home Away Chance of home team winning Home Goals Away Goals MAPE
NSW Swifts Melbourne Vixens 33% 48 53 4.5
Sunshine Coast Lightning Queensland Firebirds 34% 54 82 24.6
Collingwood Magpies West Coast Fever 30% 53 70 13.3
Adelaide Thunderbirds GIANTS Netball 69% 56 43 11.3