Note: these predictions were made after the conclusion of round 1. Make of that what you will, but there was no funny business involved!
I’ve gone a little different this year, back to a model that doesn’t include any prior season information. Given the large movements between teams, I think this will work out ok. To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.
Predictions for the first round are given in the table below. The model uses score differentials to make predictions, so it will take a few rounds for the model to calibrate.
|Chance of home team winning
|West Coast Fever
|Sunshine Coast Lightning
Score Differential Distributions
The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.