To refresh your memory, here’s a description of how my model works.

Predictions for the fifth round are given in the table below. The priors for these distributions are based on the final abilities from last season and the results to round 4.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
Queensland Firebirds	Melbourne Vixens	30%
Adelaide Thunderbirds	Sunshine Coast Lightning	17%
NSW Swifts	Collingwood Magpies	91%
West Coast Fever	GIANTS Netball	82%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

Comparison of Game Results Against Predictions

The following figure shows the results (score difference of the home team) in round 4 (blue vertical line) against the predictions from the model.

The mean average prediction error for the model over the rounds to date is 10.95. The results are shown below, with the MAPE for each game.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning	Home Goals	Away Goals	MAPE
Collingwood Magpies	Queensland Firebirds	8%	68	65	16.7
Adelaide Thunderbirds	West Coast Fever	4%	62	70	10.4
Sunshine Coast Lightning	NSW Swifts	39%	58	54	9.5
Melbourne Vixens	GIANTS Netball	46%	54	68	13.8