Here is my model prediction for the grand final! You can check out my wrap-up of the preliminary final here. Here’s a summary of what my model is predicting as the outcome of the preliminary final:

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
West Coast Fever	Sunshine Coast Lightning	52%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

How are the predictions made?

Check out the introductory post, and this post explaining how predictions for the new 2018 season are formed.