Here are my model predictions for round 14! You can check out my wrap-up of round 13 here. Here’s a summary of what my model is predicting as the outcomes of the matches for round 14:

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
Adelaide Thunderbirds	NSW Swifts	7%
Queensland Firebirds	Magpies Netball	94%
GIANTS Netball	West Coast Fever	47%
Melbourne Vixens	Sunshine Coast Lightning	32%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

How are the predictions made?

Check out the introductory post, and this post explaining how predictions for the new 2018 season are formed.