The first round of the 2018 Super Netball season is just about on us! Here’s a summary of what my model is predicting as the outcomes in the first round.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
Melbourne Vixens	Magpies Netball	51%
Adelaide Thunderbirds	West Coast Fever	69%
GIANTS Netball	Sunshine Coast Lightning	25%
NSW Swifts	Queensland Firebirds	16%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

How are the predictions made?

Check out the introductory post, and this post explaining how predictions for the new 2018 season are formed.