It’s been a long time coming, so for the few that are still hanging on, sorry for the delay. It’s been a crazy couple of months or so for me, on top of which I didn’t really like what was happening with the abilities. But, we’re starting to see some more movement coming in the abilities as you can see below. Now, a month off is a long time, so let’s see how these predictions track!

Predictions for round 10 are given in the table below.

Home	Away	Chance of home team winning
Queensland Firebirds	Sunshine Coast Lightning	2%
West Coast Fever	NSW Swifts	24%
Magpies Netball	GIANTS Netball	90%
Melbourne Vixens	Adelaide Thunderbirds	96%

Score Differential Distributions

The distribution of the predicted score differentials is shown in the figures below. For each game, the chance of the home team winning is calculated and shown in the figure title. Each distribution is coloured by the team’s colours, and the more of a single team’s colour, the higher the chance that team has of winning. Overlaid on each figure are two vertical, dashed dark green lines; these show the score differential that has a 50% predicted chance of happening.

Team Abilities

I’m happier with the abilities now. There’s some movement happening, for example the Swifts are getting better, and the Firebirds dropping well off. Combine this with the home ground advantage, and you can see where the predictions above are coming from. For example, the Thunderbirds have been much more competitive at home (and in general) this year, whilst the Magpies have been dominant (ignoring the loss to the Fever, which was only by 2 goals).